UK EV target rules are expected to be cut this week, with ministers likely to lower the 2030 requirement from 80% of new car sales to about 60%. The Guardian reported this on 8 November, citing government sources. Downing Street says no decision has been taken.
If it goes ahead, it will be one of the biggest changes yet to the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate, the rule that tells carmakers what share of their new cars must be fully electric each year. It would ease pressure on manufacturers who are already behind this year’s target. It would also upset Labour MPs, climate groups and charging companies who planned around the 80% goal.
What is the UK EV target, and what may change?
The ZEV mandate requires a rising share of each manufacturer’s new car sales to be zero-emission. It was 28% in 2025 and is 33% in 2026. Under current law it climbs to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029 and 80% in 2030, before reaching 100% in 2035.
According to The Guardian, Louise Haigh, described as the de facto deputy prime minister, will finalise the plan after a Downing Street meeting on Wednesday, 11 November. Insiders told the paper she will probably approve a 2030 target of about 60% and extend the mandate’s flexibilities until 2034.
Vans would change too. In the consultation, the 60% car option is paired with a 2030 van target of 50%, down from 70% under the current path.
This would not be the first rewrite. The BBC notes that the petrol and diesel phase-out has changed several times since Boris Johnson announced it in 2020, including Rishi Sunak’s move of the full ban to 2035.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has stepped back from the decision. The Guardian and the BBC both report that his wife, Marie-France van Heel, advises the board of the EV charging network Be.EV.
Why does the government want to lower the target?
Carmakers say demand isn’t there yet. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) says battery electric cars made up 26.6% of new registrations from January to October 2026. That’s well short of the 33% target, even though October alone hit 32.0%, the best month of the year.
SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes told The Guardian that “the gap between demand and mandated targets continues to widen”. SMMT’s own outlook expects a 27.2% share this year, 32% in 2027 and 37.5% in 2028, when the current target is 52%.
The government’s consultation, which ran from 14 August to 23 October, set out the options. You can read them in the Department for Transport’s ZEV mandate review. They are to keep 80% with flexibilities extended to 2034, or cut the 2030 target to 70%, 60% or 50%.
| Key fact | Detail |
|---|---|
| Current 2030 target | 80% of new cars zero-emission |
| Expected new target | About 60%, flexibilities to 2034 (Guardian sources) |
| Decision meeting | Wednesday 11 November 2026 (reported) |
| 2026 target | 33% |
| BEV share Jan-Oct 2026 | 26.6% (503,805 of 1,892,000 cars, SMMT) |
| BEV share October 2026 | 32.0% (48,858 cars) |
| Penalty per car over target | £12,000 (DfT consultation) |
| Unchanged, says government | 2030 end of pure petrol/diesel sales; 100% ZEV by 2035 |
What happens after Wednesday matters as much as the number. FleetPoint reports that the government has promised a formal response to the consultation by the end of 2026. Until that is published, any new figure is a political decision, not yet written into the regulations carmakers must follow.
Who is for and against the cut?
Whitehall is split, according to The Guardian. Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds reportedly wants the deepest cut, to 50%. Transport secretary Heidi Alexander is believed to favour about 60%. Energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh and her predecessor, now foreign secretary Ed Miliband, reportedly want to keep 80%.
Outside government, Shane Brennan of ChargeUK warned that weakening the mandate “puts £1.7bn of charging infrastructure at risk”. He told The Guardian that investor confidence would be “rocked by a third change in three years”. Labour MPs Lizzi Collinge and Catherine Fookes also spoke out, and the BBC reports that Energy UK opposes the move.
The timing is awkward. Burnham is heading to COP31, the UN climate summit, where ministers plan to champion electrification. The BBC notes that the EU has already scrapped a similar 2035 ban after pressure from countries with big car industries.
Does this affect car buyers and global carmakers?
For UK buyers, the 2030 and 2035 deadlines stay in place, the government says. What changes is how hard manufacturers must push EVs in the meantime. The big discounts many brands used this year to hit their quota could shrink if the pressure eases. That’s our reading, not an official forecast.
For global brands, the UK is a market where the mandate rewards whoever has the most affordable EVs. Chinese makers have been growing fast, as our report on BYD’s record October sales and exports shows. British makers such as JLR are in the middle of their own electric shift, covered in our story on the Range Rover Electric and JLR’s EV plan.
Indian readers will notice a familiar argument. Charging companies invest on the promise of rising EV sales, as our piece on India’s EV charging reliability problem explains. When targets move, that business case gets harder.
| Confirmed | Not confirmed |
|---|---|
| Consultation offered 80%, 70%, 60% and 50% options | The final 2030 figure |
| Consultation closed 23 October | That the decision comes on Wednesday |
| BEV share is 26.6% year to date (SMMT) | Whether flexibilities extend to 2034 |
| Government says 2030 and 2035 dates stay | New year-by-year targets for 2027-2029 |
| Penalty is £12,000 per car (DfT) | Any change to that penalty |
| Burnham has stepped back from the decision | Van targets in the final plan |
CarBike Insight Analysis
We compared the current law with the consultation’s illustrative 60% path, Option 2, using SMMT’s own forecasts. The final decision may not follow Option 2 exactly, but it shows what a 60% target could mean year by year.
Under Option 2, the targets would run 36% in 2027, 44% in 2028, 52% in 2029 and 60% in 2030. After that, they would rise 8 points a year to reach 100% in 2035.
| Calculation | Result | Limitation |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 gap: target minus SMMT forecast | Current 38 – 32 = 6 pts; Option 2 36 – 32 = 4 pts | Forecast, not result |
| 2028 gap | Current 52 – 37.5 = 14.5 pts; Option 2 44 – 37.5 = 6.5 pts | Same |
| 2030 target difference | 80% – 60% = 20 points | Final figure unconfirmed |
| 20 points at this year’s market size | 0.20 x 1,892,000 = about 378,400 cars | Jan-Oct 2026 only |
| 2026 shortfall so far | 33% – 26.6% = 6.4 points, about 121,000 cars | Year not finished |
| Theoretical penalty on that shortfall | 121,000 x £12,000 = about £1.45bn | Ceiling; flexibilities cut this sharply |
| Lost carbon savings, 60% option (cars) | 4.2 MtCO2e a year in Carbon Budget 6 | DfT modelling |
The clearest effect is in 2028. Under current rules, SMMT expects the industry to miss by 14.5 points. Under a 60% path, that gap would be less than half as big. That’s why carmakers are pressing so hard, and why charging firms fear fewer EVs on the road than they planned for.
The £1.45bn figure is not a real bill. Carmakers can use hybrid credits, borrowing and trading to reduce or avoid fines. It does show why manufacturers treat the target as a serious cost.
FAQ
What is the UK EV target for 2030?
Under current law, 80% of new cars sold in the UK in 2030 must be zero-emission. Reports say ministers are likely to cut that to about 60%. The government says no decision has been taken yet.
When will the UK EV target decision be announced?
The Guardian reports that Louise Haigh will finalise the plan after a Downing Street meeting on Wednesday, 11 November. The exact announcement date hasn’t been confirmed, and the government has said the outcome is not settled.
Is the UK still banning new petrol and diesel cars in 2030?
Yes, according to the government. It says new cars relying only on petrol or diesel will be phased out by 2030, and all new cars and vans must be zero-emission by 2035. Under that wording, hybrids can still be sold until 2035.
Will EVs get more expensive if the UK EV target is cut?
Nobody can say for sure. Carmakers have used discounts to meet this year’s quota. Less pressure could mean fewer deals, but prices also depend on competition, especially from Chinese brands. Watch dealer offers after the decision.
How far behind is the UK on electric car sales?
SMMT data shows battery electric cars took 26.6% of new registrations from January to October 2026, against a 33% target. October reached 32.0%. SMMT expects 27.2% for the full year.
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